The Bosnian Crisis

  • Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism

    Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism

    Differing estimates and perceptions of opponents’ power may increase the likelihood of war. Countries are generally incentivized to misrepresent their own strength and capabilities, and such stratagems to retain advantage during military bargaining may lead to mutually optimistic perceptions: each state believes it is more powerful than its opponent. As…