Robert Schub
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When Does War Transpire? Unlikely War Onset Under Uncertainty
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Scholars have attempted to clarify whether uncertainty about the outcome of a potential war—victory or defeat—influences state behavior in international crises. Until recently, there was consensus that when two states in a bilateral context have equivalent capabilities, and therefore experience high outcome uncertainty, they are more inclined to undergo conflict.…
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Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism
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Differing estimates and perceptions of opponents’ power may increase the likelihood of war. Countries are generally incentivized to misrepresent their own strength and capabilities, and such stratagems to retain advantage during military bargaining may lead to mutually optimistic perceptions: each state believes it is more powerful than its opponent. As…