International Studies Quarterly
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What Makes Military Dictators Transition Out of Dictatorships?
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Frequent leadership cycles are common in dictatorships. Historically, military dictators, whose power is derived from the armed forces, have been subject to more subsequent coups and regime changes than their non-military counterparts. Given their short-lived tenure, military dictators always have to gauge their fate based on the premise of losing…
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Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism
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Differing estimates and perceptions of opponents’ power may increase the likelihood of war. Countries are generally incentivized to misrepresent their own strength and capabilities, and such stratagems to retain advantage during military bargaining may lead to mutually optimistic perceptions: each state believes it is more powerful than its opponent. As…