Author: Changwook Ju
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When Does War Transpire? Unlikely War Onset Under Uncertainty
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Scholars have attempted to clarify whether uncertainty about the outcome of a potential war—victory or defeat—influences state behavior in international crises. Until recently, there was consensus that when two states in a bilateral context have equivalent capabilities, and therefore experience high outcome uncertainty, they are more inclined to undergo conflict.…
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Are Economic Elites Anti-Democratic? Why Economic Elites May Support Democratization
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Are economic elites always anti-democratic? Not in some contexts. Structural changes in the Bolivian economy cultivated a new set of economic elites in the late 1960s and early 1970s. They typically supported the right-leaning Hugo Banzer, who led a series of coups against the left-leaning junta and established a tyrannical…
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Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism
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Differing estimates and perceptions of opponents’ power may increase the likelihood of war. Countries are generally incentivized to misrepresent their own strength and capabilities, and such stratagems to retain advantage during military bargaining may lead to mutually optimistic perceptions: each state believes it is more powerful than its opponent. As…
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How Should We Understand Alliance Formation in a Multilateral World?
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For several decades, bilateral modeling has been the central tool in much of the theoretical and empirical research on alliance formation. Theoretical investigations into alliance formation were traditionally rooted in dyadic game-theoretical frameworks that feature two primary parties. For example, these models might examine the trade-off of an alliance relationship…
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Toward an Inclusive Democracy: The Positive Impact of Preregistration Laws on Youth Voter Turnout
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Low turnout among young voters in the United States has recently garnered attention, prompting policymakers and political scientists to design electoral reforms aimed at bringing young Americans into the public decision-making process. The most common strategies have included early voting and online voter registration; however, some scholars have also urged reforms aimed at reducing…