Good Policy is Good Politics

In the parts of America that will decide the election, the presidency is won or lost with policy and not in courts, brokered conventions, or headlines. With a high-stakes and volatile election, mired in early controversy, the focus on economic policy remains the most constructive path to gain the support of swing voters in key battleground states. Over the last couple of weeks, the news cycle has been stretched and accelerated to include topics ranging from an assassination attempt, vice president discussions for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, inflation updates, the continued war between Hamas and Israel, and everything in between. Still, voters consistently report that basic economics remains of paramount importance. Put simply: good policy is good politics.

With 34 guilty verdicts, an embattled Trump still leads in some key polls, as both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump seek the presidency. Despite Trump’s recent convictions, declining polling forced Biden to abruptly end a presidential re-election bid, leaving an outgoing Biden the most unpopular president in history, including Trump. Following a Supreme Court decision granting Trump broad presidential immunity from prosecution, an appeal is still likely, and there remains a real chance that former President Trump could win the election, in which case there are outstanding jurisprudential questions about sentencing a sitting president that would likely be further challenged in the courts.

In anticipation of a contentious election, some have floated the option of a brokered convention. But democracy is not decided at a convention and elections are not won in the courts, elections are won at the ballot box; politics is a matter of public policy, not personal controversy —and good policy can still win this election. With President Joe Biden endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, the Harris campaign has to simultaneously build on the Biden coalition while also creating distance from any lingering controversy of the current administration. This will require advocating for a policy platform. As of this writing, the Harris campaign has not published a platform, while the specifics of Trump’s platform are often either flatly unpopular or overly focused on punitive measures aimed at niche communities as a means of culture war politics, like preventing transgender women from competing in high school sports, meanwhile, J.D. Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate, has backed much of a controversial plan called Project 2025, which Trump has tried to disavow.

 

 

For however popular or unpopular the candidates are, concerning age, corruption, or legal trouble, policy solutions to issues that Americans care about are far more popular. Most Americans care primarily about kitchen table economic issues, this trend is more pronounced in swing states. Polling data show that Trump is currently ahead in most swing states, but focusing on issues that voters care about can swing the support.

 

Looking ahead to an election that will likely re-litigate the responsibility of the last recession, it is important to note that Americans are still somewhat unsure if the current economy is in recession, but are fairly sure that the Biden administration is to blame, which includes Kamala Harris. The Biden-Harris administration has been fairly effective at passing consequential bills, while largely remaining out of the news cycle, in part using low visibility as a legislative tool to avoid criticism. However, this strategy also obscures any track record that could be useful in an election. Good policy can only be good politics with transparency, and the campaign can gain support by highlighting the aforementioned legislative wins and prioritizing a platform that centerpieces solutions to the concerns that Americans have about the economic outlook.

Polling data show that voters have various, often competing preferences about any number of topics. The controversies of this election have already informed a historic amount of coverage and visibility. Americans care about the convictions of Trump, and people are also concerned about democracy and political violence, but setting all of this aside, the polls consistently show that more than any other issue Americans care about their livelihood. Americans care more about student debt, wages, inflation, healthcare, and good jobs much more than conviction. The polling data show that this verdict will not sway voters, but good policy can.