From Gang Rule to Iron Fist: Questioning Progress in Bukele’s El Salvador

Significant sums from a secret government fund? CHECK. 

Calling for occupation of the Legislature by security forces? CHECK. 

Intimidation of local journalists using death threats and imprisonment? CHECK. 

Nayib Bukele’s reign as president of El Salvador has exhibited all the fixings of an authoritarian regime. Embracing this image, Bukele openly labels himself as “the world’s coolest dictator” but goes to great lengths to promote the narrative of a lily-white, immaculate savior ridding El Salvador of its ills. His mano dura (“iron fist”) approach to combating gang violence has been lauded as a beacon of hope for a nation besieged by decades of bloodshed.  

Beneath the façade of plummeting homicide rates, however, lies a self-serving governance model characterized by secret negotiations, impunity for allies, and selective crackdowns. El Salvador is not witnessing a triumph over crime, but trading gang control and violence for “a more [] organized criminal form, with superior firepower: the state mafia controlled by President Nayib Bukele.” 

The gangs of Mara Salvatrucha (aka MS-13) and Barrio 18 have gained infamy for their stranglehold on Salvadoran society, employing mass violence to instill terror, yet their reach notably extends beyond the nation’s borders. These gangs have evolved into formidable criminal empires, forging ties with Mexico’s major cartels such as Los Zetas, the Beltrán-Leyvas, and the Sinaloas. They separately have an estimated 30,000 foot soldiers dispersed across Central America, Mexico, and the United States, which illustrates the extent of their influence over a vast geographic area.  

MS-13, in particular, has been designated as a transnational criminal organization by the U.S. Treasury Department and implicated in a wide range of criminal activities including human smuggling, sex trafficking, drug trafficking, kidnapping, racketeering, extortion, and murder. To demonstrate the scope of the gangs’ deathly impact, some 23,000 Salvadorans were killed over one president’s five-year administration, or close to 13 killings a day on average. 

Against this backdrop, Bukele’s administration emerged as a polarizing force on the international stage, sparking debate with its approach to combating gang violence. Known for his hardline stance, he has continued the trend of declining homicide rates in El Salvador that began in 2015. Before Bukele took office, the country experienced a reduction in its death toll from a total of 6,657 fatalities in 2015 to 2,398 in 2019. By implementing iron-fisted policies and suspending citizens’ basic rights such as arbitrary detention, violations of due process, and instances of torture, he has marketed his governance model as a necessary means of crime control. Even Ruben Zamora, a politician from the Salvadoran opposition acknowledged the drop in homicides, noting that, despite the situation’s imperfection, the extended military and police presence seemed to be the clearest explanation. These strategies have undeniably reduced gangland violence, but the administration’s refusal to acknowledge the role of past gang negotiations and preference for attributing success solely to its crackdown raises concerns about the long-term viability of Bukele’s model for enduring “security.” 

The Central American newspaper, El Faro, exposed a series of clandestine meetings that challenge the official narrative of Bukele’s administration. They unveiled surveillance footage of Vice Minister Osiris Luna escorting a group of hooded government officials and at-large gang leaders through the corridors of a maximum-security prison. A truce emerged from this meeting with the leaders of MS-13 and Barrio 18 concealed from the public eye. It acted as the cornerstone of a secret alliance that dramatically lowered the homicide toll from 2,398 in 2019 to 1,140 in 2021 and allowed Bukele’s nascent party to covertly gain the gangs’ political support in the 2021 elections. However, a breakdown in this secret agreement led to a violent crime spree by the gangs in March 2022, signaling potential flaws in the government’s approach and underscoring the government’s complicity in the ensuing chaos. 

The saga of MS-13 leader Elmer Canales Rivera, alias “Crook,” exposes a reality of under-the-table alliances underpinning Bukele’s administration. Despite being on the United States’ list of most wanted terrorists, Bukele’s administration released Crook from Salvadoran custody amid the secret gang negotiations and allowed him to live in luxury in the capital. However, the breakdown of this precarious arrangement occurred after the U.S. requested Crook’s extradition.  Keen to avoid political fallout, the administration orchestrated a plan with a Barrio 18 leader to recapture him by offering a staggering one million U.S. dollars for his return. 

These covert alliances not only raise questions about the sustainability of Bukele’s security policies but also highlight a governance approach prioritizing political expediency over transparent and ethical administration .The administration’s willingness to engage with gang leaders and leverage their relationships with Mexican cartels in pursuit of their agenda further complicates the narrative Bukele wants the world to believe – the reduction in violence can only be credited to the draconian measures of his state of emergency. Crook’s lavish lifestyle and the extraordinary measures undertaken for his recapture stand as a testament to the deals struck in the shadows, affording him protections unimaginable to ordinary citizens. 

The questionable leniency Bukele extends towards certain gang figures is mirrored by the impunity he grants to officials within his own administration. According to an NBC News report, several of President Bukele’s allies have been identified on a U.S. list of officials deemed corrupt or undemocratic—including those implicated in acts undermining democratic processes or obstructing investigations into corruption. Among these allies, Chief of Staff Carolina Recinos has faced several accusations due to her involvement in a complex money laundering scheme tied to Bukele where she channeled Venezuelan oil money into Bukele’s political endeavors. 

While they publicly commit to eradicating corruption and gang influence, their involvement in corruption suggests how much the government tolerates this behavior even in the highest levels of government. This dual impunity for both gang leaders and state officials undermines public trust in the government, suggesting that political allegiance and connections may shield one from accountability in Bukele’s El Salvador. Implementing a “playing blind” approach does not reflect a strong institutional crackdown on criminal activities but rather a pattern of short-term wheeling and dealing that prioritizes short-term gains over long-term stability and integrity. 

Journalists and prosecutors who have dared to probe the Bukele administration’s murky interactions have encountered systematic suppression. The dismissal of the prosecutor intent on investigating Bukele’s dealings with gangs further cements a regime of impunity, where actions that once sparked outrage now pass without consequence under the current administration’s watchful eye. This strategic silence around inquiries hints at a broader trend of tightening one’s grip on the state apparatus, ensuring that the battle against crime serves to reinforce personal dominion. 

By leveraging accusations of associations with gangs and drug trafficking, the government has crafted a powerful tool to delegitimize and silence any form of opposition. This strategy not only conceals the administration’s questionable activities but also fosters a climate of fear that stifles free expression. In fact, El Faro, well-known for its investigative journalism, has been forced to relocate operations to Costa Rica due to escalating threats and legal harassment. 

Bukele’s enactment of laws that criminalize reporting on gang activities serve as further weaponization of legal frameworks against critics, blurring the lines between journalism, activism, and criminality. By deliberately conflating them, Bukele advances his agenda to control the narrative both within and beyond El Salvador’s borders, resulting in a distorted public discourse. This strategy blurs the line between truth and government propaganda, effectively stifling genuine critique and accountability. 

While Bukele has indeed succeeded in reducing violence in El Salvador, there are costs to replacing the terror of gang rule with that of authoritarianism. It’s become clear that the focus is not on building institutions for the people, but on amassing unchecked power, highlighting a stark departure from democratic ideals. As the government heralds its success in plummeting homicide rates, we do not know the true costs of these tactics. As with all authoritarians, however, at some point, the untold stories will one day reveal the extent of these harrowing consequences.