A New Path to Victory for Minority Candidates

Once data from the 2020 Census becomes available, the United States is set to undergo redistricting, which will undoubtedly influence the levels of minority representation in government. Historically, most Black and Latino candidates have been elected in districts where minorities make up a large share of the population, known as “majority-minority” districts. Groups like the NAACP have advocated for the drawing of majority-minority districts to guarantee Black representation in Congress. The problem with these districts, however, is that they concentrate a large number of Democratic votes in a single district — making the party less competitive outside of those districts. Further, David Lublin et al. argue in a seminal article published in The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics that majority-minority districts may not be necessary to guarantee diversity in Congress after all.

Examining elections from 1992 to 2015, Lublin et al. noticed that minority candidates have recently been successful in districts with a “sweet spot” of representation — in which racial minorities constitute just under half of the district’s population. These results not only present a new opportunity for minority candidates to win office, but call into question whether majority-minority districts should be a focus of redistricting efforts.

The authors examined the likelihood of minority candidate success against districts’ demographic makeups. They found, unsurprisingly, that the chance of minority candidate success was higher in more diverse districts. In southern states in 2015, 95% of all Black candidates elected to the state house and 96% of all state senate candidates were from majority-minority districts. Outside the South, these percentages were still high, with 82% for the state house and 80% for the state senate. This seems to suggest very little opportunity for Black candidates to succeed outside of majority-minority districts, validating the claims of groups like the NAACP. Latino candidates face an even larger challenge, as many Latino residents are ineligible to vote due to being non-citizens.

In this analysis, however, one thing stood out: in districts where racial minorities comprised 40% to 50% of the population, minority candidates were more likely to win than lose. In some districts with a “sweet spot” of minority representation, Black candidates were elected up to 83% of the time.

To explain this result, the authors explored two common political science theories. First, they theorized that voters’ racial attitudes may not be as polarized as they once were, and white voters may be more supportive of minority candidates than previously thought. If this were true, however, we would expect higher rates of success for minority candidates in overwhelmingly white districts. Alternatively, they explored whether larger numbers of qualified minority candidates are being recruited or prompted to run for office. While this may be true, the authors emphasize that candidates will likely run only if there is a chance at winning. So, this explanation, too, fails to account for minority success in sweet-spot districts.

Instead, the authors attribute this success to rising polarization and the strength of the Republican Party. As more white voters enter the Republican Party, minority voters grow as a share of the Democratic Party — making it easier to nominate minority candidates. Then, in the general election, when Democratic voters face a choice between a minority Democratic candidate and a white Republican candidate, they will vote with their party, leading to the minority candidate’s success. The more white Republican voters in the electorate, the smaller proportion of minority voters necessary to elect a minority candidate. This is only to a certain extent, of course. Regardless of race, the Democratic candidate cannot win if there are too many white Republicans in the district. This results in a “sweet spot” of 40% to 50% minority makeup of constituents where a minority candidate is very likely to be elected.

Lublin et al.’s analysis may offer a new path to victory for minorities considering a run for office at the federal, state, and municipal levels. It may be time to decrease advocacy for majority-minority districts and consider other ways minority voters can be redistributed to ensure fair representation.

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Lublin, David, Lisa Handley, Thomas L. Brunell, and Bernard Grofman. 2020. “Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the ‘Sweet Spot.’” The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics 5, no. 2: 275–98. https://doi.org/10.1017/rep.2019.24.