Why Are Mexican Political Candidates Getting Killed?

The 2018 elections were not only the largest in Mexico’s history, but also the most violent. From September 2017 to June 2018, 48 political candidates were killed during their campaigns. Was this violence politically motivated? A consequence of the criminal activity of the drug cartels? Was it a combination of both? A recent investigation seems to have found the answer.

In the most recent issue of Política y Gobierno, a journal published by the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), professor Victor Antonio Hernández Huerta investigates the high number of candidates killed during Mexico’s last election.

To find out what caused these murders, Hernandez begins by examining what the victims had in common. According to his research, of the 48 dead candidates, 20 were competing for office, and 28 were competing for a party nomination. Many of the victims were men (41), and the vast majority (46) were running for office at the local level—mayors, local deputies, etc. Notably, the victims belonged to different parties, suggesting that the crimes were not ideologically motivated. The location of these crimes seems to have played a more relevant role than partisanship.

In his work, Hernández carries out a quantitative analysis of 710 municipalities located in states where at least one candidate was killed during the 2018 elections. He tests two hypotheses. First, the theory of electoral competition, which states that governments and parties use violence to remain in power. This was not uncommon in Mexico’s past, as seen during the dictatorship of General Porfirio Díaz, 1876-1911, and the subsequent Revolution. Second, the theory of criminal violence, which seeks to explain the reasons criminal groups exert violence against state agents: as retaliation against politicians who did not provide them with adequate protection, to capture rents, and finally, to secure allegiance from future governments. In this case, criminals aim to intimidate and threaten politicians when they are most vulnerable—that is, when they are still candidates.

Hernández tests both hypotheses using statistical tools. The results show that the most related variable to the crimes is the presence of criminal organizations. According to Hernández, when the number of criminal organizations operating in a municipality is zero, the probability of at least one murder occurring is 2.10%. When the number is three, this probability rises to 6.15%. When it is nine, the maximum value observed in the sample, the probability reaches 37.90%.

Noticing that the phenomenon of candidate homicides was closely related to the presence of criminal organizations, Hernández seeks to identify whether these deaths can be attributed to the violent environment that exists in the country or, alternatively, that the candidates were a specific target of drug gangs. 

It turns out both are true. In two states, Puebla and Guerrero, located in the center of Mexico and on the Western coast, respectively, homicide rates were significantly higher among political candidates than the general population. In the rest of the states under review, candidates’ deaths can be understood as a kind of, in the author’s words, “collateral damage” from a preexisting context of violence.

The statistical analysis also shows a negative relationship between the number of law enforcement agents and the number of candidates killed. This finding reinforces the hypothesis of scholars such as Sandra Ley and Guillermo Trejo (2019), who found that criminal organizations tend to attack and threaten politicians who are politically and militarily unprotected by state authorities. This allows the author to make a policy prescription: the best way to reduce the number of political assassinations is to strengthen the presence of law enforcement. Hernández recommends that, at election time, the federal government provides additional protection to crime ridden populations.

Last month, Mexico began preparations for the 2021 midterm elections. As the date steadily approaches, Hernández’s proposals are more relevant than ever. Although the 2018 elections were the most violent in Mexico’s history, there is still time to prevent future assassinations and their harmful effects on the country’s democracy.

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Hernández Huerta, Víctor Antonio. 2020. “Candidatos Asesinados en México, ¿Competencia Electoral o Violencia Criminal?” Política y Gobierno 27, no. 2: 223-248. http://www.politicaygobierno.cide.edu/index.php/pyg/article/view/1307.