Trump and COVID-19: 5 Election Scenarios

President Trump shocked the nation last week when he announced that he tested positive for COVID-19. Reports of the president’s medical treatment suggest that he is suffering from serious symptoms, throwing an already chaotic election season into further disarray. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s move to create a Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office highlights the fact that the President’s feeble health is a cause of concern for multiple branches of government.

While Democratic nominee Joe Biden has not received a positive test, his proximity to the president during last Tuesday’s presidential debate gives another reason to worry. Both candidates are over 70 years old, placing them at greater risk of serious complications from the disease.

To further muddy the waters, voting is already underway in at least 28 states as election officials prepare for unprecedented rates of mail-in voting.

The evolving health of the candidates and the challenges of a mid-pandemic election have profound implications for next month’s election. In this article, we break down the transfer of powers and procedural challenges that might arise between now and Nov. 3.

Scenario 1: Trump recovers quickly

Given the power of the incumbency and the number of ballots already distributed to voters, it seems likely that the election will proceed as normal if President Trump recovers quickly. Incumbent presidents typically face stronger electoral prospects due to name recognition and experience in office, and any updates to the party’s nominee would not be reflected on any ballots already distributed. Given these two factors, a change in candidate would be detrimental to the Republican Party’s prospects and would not be undertaken lightly. As long as the president’s condition remains stable and his symptoms are mild, we will almost certainly reach Election Day without last-minute changes to candidates or ballots.

A speedy recovery has implications for Trump’s electoral prospects, as well. Trump may garner some sympathy from the American public and see a resurgence in popularity at the ballot box. His experience with the disease may also influence his COVID-19 policy and rhetoric, creating a broader base of support among swing voters for whom public health is a deciding issue.

Scenario 2: Trump recovers, but is not well enough to campaign

If President Trump’s condition worsens and he remains seriously ill throughout the next month, the election will likely continue as planned. Again, the power of the incumbency and the number of already-distributed ballots provide an incentive for the Republican Party to keep Trump as their candidate. In addition to limiting the president’s ability to hold campaign events, a slow recovery would also preclude Trump from participating in future debates.

While postponing the election may seem an attractive alternative for the president, the Constitution requires approval from both congressional chambers. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would rigorously oppose any efforts to postpone Election Day if they perceive that doing so would be advantageous to the president.

Scenario 3: Trump is incapacitated as president

What if the president’s condition worsens to the point that he is no longer able to fulfill the duties of the office? As outlined in the 25th Amendment, a transfer of power can occur if Trump voluntarily suspends his role, or if the vice president and a majority of cabinet members determine that the president is incapable of fulfilling his duties.

In this scenario, Vice President Mike Pence becomes acting president. As long as Trump survives, however, he could remain the Republican presidential nominee and win the November election. Trump would resume the role of the president upon returning to adequate health.

Scenario 4: A candidate dies before Election Day

The death of a candidate is by far the most complicated situation the nation could face, and timing matters immensely. In the event that either candidate dies before election day, the vice-presidential candidate does not automatically assume the party nomination. Instead, the Republican or Democratic National Committee would select a new candidate, a process that could become protracted and messy.

There are a number of reasons the parties might nevertheless default to selecting the current vice-presidential candidate as the new nominee. Delaying the election would require approval by both the House and the Senate. If postponement would favor one party over the other, it would be nearly impossible to pass in both the Democratic House and Republican-controlled Senate. The candidates have already been vetted for a national campaign, making them a safe choice. Messaging would also be simpler as the vice-presidential candidates are already listed on the ballot.

The task of updating ballots would fall to states. With a tight timeline before election day, budgetary constraints, and heavy reliance on mail-in voting, many states would likely keep current nominees on the ticket.

Scenario 5: A candidate dies between Election Day and the inauguration

If the winning candidate passes away between the election and inauguration, their vice president would become president-elect and assume office on Jan. 20. The new president would be able to select their vice president. If President Trump wins at the ballot box, the transfer of power is fairly straightforward: Vice President Mike Pence would assume the full office of the presidency on the date of Trump’s passing. The logistics are more complicated if Trump loses the election.

If Biden wins and Trump dies before Inauguration Day, Mike Pence would take Trump’s place as sitting president during the lame duck session. Biden would assume the office as scheduled.

If Biden wins in November but passes away before Inauguration Day, Kamala Harris would become the first woman president of the United States on Jan. 20.

Regardless of how the situation evolves, the level of uncertainty in this election is unprecedented. Your vote has never been more important. To check your registration status, request an absentee ballot, or find your polling place, visit vote.org.