A Decarbonized Grid by 2035: Necessary, Dependable, and Affordable

There is a growing consensus among scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders that society must become more reliant on renewable energy in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the method of and timeline for renewable energy reliance remain unclear and subject to political whims. The plummeting costs of wind and solar energy, as well as battery storage, allows for the rapid, cost-effective integration of these technologies into electricity grids much sooner than the typically projected 2050.

A study conducted by the Goldman School of Public Policy highlights just how viable a clean energy transition would be. In the 2035 Report, Phadke et al. assess the feasibility of the United States operating a 90% clean energy grid by the year 2035, a timeline more compressed than those proposed by traditional decarbonization studies. By transitioning the electrical grid to renewable and clean energy sources by 2035 rather than 2050, decarbonization of other sectors, such as transportation, becomes more seamless resulting in overall greater climate change mitigation. Given the expedited timeline, the researchers suggest a 90% clean energy grid as opposed to 100%. Experts predict that a 90% clean energy grid will reduce greenhouse gas production by 27 percent, an amount the U.S. agreed upon prior to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement.

Phadke et al., utilizing NREL 2019 Annual Technology Baseline, found that wholesale electricity prices in 2035 were less than 2020 prices under both the 90% clean energy grid and the business as usual scenarios. However, wholesale costs in the 90% scenario are far lower than those under fossil fuel generation when factoring in environmental costs. Additional savings accumulate when considering “avoided costs.” A 90% renewable grid reduces around $1.2 trillion in costs associated with environmental and health impacts through decreased pollutant emissions and avoidance of 85,000 premature deaths. Under this scenario, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 1.3 billion tons–88 percent of current emission levels from electricity generation–by 2035.

Phadke et. al ran grid dependability simulations using two industry standard energy models: NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System and Energy Exemplar’s PLEXOS software. The models predict a renewable grid supplemented with 10 percent of capacity coming from existing natural gas plants and battery storage would be able to dependably support demand during times of low renewable generation and/or peak energy demand without the use of coal. This model proves that if managed correctly, renewable resources are a dependable source of energy, even when generated intermittently. With the advancement of battery storage, the dependability and resilience of a distributed, renewable grid will only improve.

A clean energy grid produces ancillary benefits, which are especially relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to business as usual, switching to a 90% clean energy grid adds about $1.7 trillion in renewable investments and 1.8 million ongoing jobs; this amounts to around 500,000 more jobs than no action taken. In contrast to fossil fuels, renewable energy also reduces human exposure to particulate matter, a pollutant known to damage the lungs, cause adverse health effects, and believed to increase mortality from COVID-19. Advocates for environmental justice have long recognized the disproportionate effects that fossil fuels and particulate matter have had on communities of color, with the pandemic making these environmental and health disparities even more apparent. The benefits outlined in the 2035 Report are great news for those calling for a renewable energy economic stimulus bill in the wake of the pandemic.

As of 2020, the United States has about 1,000 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity. To meet 90% clean energy goal, the United States would need to add an additional 1,100 GW of capacity. The good news is that nearly 550 GW are already planned for development. Further, Phadke et. al. posit that completing the additional capacity is not only both technically and economically feasible, but would also would not impose any monetary costs on the consumers.

Phadke et. suggest that the following policies must be immediately adopted to ensure the remaining capacity is procured by 2035:

• Cease building new fossil fuel plants and retire all coal plants by 2035.
• Expand wind, solar, and battery storage to provide 70 percent of annual generation during normal demand, with existing nuclear and hydropower plants remaining online to provide 20 percent.
• Run legacy natural gas plants only in times of peak demand, providing less than 10 percent of electricity generation.

Other resources outlining policy recommendations are available on the website 2035report.com. Policies like these have gained political popularity as of late, an example being the Green New Deal. Taking the approach of “No New Policy” will maintain a fossil fuel dominated status quo and restrict meeting decarbonization and climate targets. This report provides evidence supporting the fiscal benefits, among others, of renewables over fossil fuels, inciting a much-needed jolt to the clean energy industry amid a nation-wide economic downturn.

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Phadke, Amol, Umed Paliwal, Nikit Abhyankar, Taylor McNair, Ben Paulos, David Wooley, and Ric O’Connell. 2020. “2035 Report: Plummeting Solar, Wind, and Battery Costs can Accelerate our Clean Electricity Future.” Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California Berkeley. https://www.2035report.com/downloads/.