Does Internet Censorship Stifle or Spark Protest?

The invention and expansion of the internet has revolutionized how citizens engage in political expression and protest. Citizens subject to authoritarian regimes have taken advantage of the instantaneous nature of internet communication to mobilize political demonstrations, as seen in the Arab Spring, the Taiwan Sunflower Movement, and the ongoing Hong Kong protests.

Fearing potential consequences of large-scale protests, many authoritarian regimes encourage online self-censorship with the intent to chill dissent. An empirical study, conducted by Jiayin Lu and Yupei Zhao and published in the International Journal of Communications, evaluates the impact of China’s censorship policies on political engagement and protest.

The researchers survey 2,188 university students in China to better understand how the degree of awareness of internet laws and regulations (DAILR) and the degree of psychological perception of internet censorship (DPPIC) affect the frequency with which students engage in political expression and political protest. Lu and Zhao gauge the feelings of students, asking how aware they are of regulations within internet censorship law, how frequently they engage in online political expression and political protest, and the degree of concern they feel about being punished for engaging in political protest.

Controlling for demographic variables, such as age, and including the scores for each variable in a hierarchical regression model, Lu and Zhao find that a one-unit increase in a person’s degree of awareness of internet laws and regulations is associated with a 4.3 percentage point increase in the likelihood that he or she will engage in political protest. On the other hand, a single-unit increase in the psychological perception of internet censorship is associated with a 9.4 percentage point decrease in the likelihood that the person will engage in political protest. Lu and Zhao also look at the relationship of the two indicator variables and find that a unit increase in the awareness of internet laws and regulations is associated with an 11.8 percentage point decrease in an individual’s perception of internet censorship as a threat.

From these findings, the authors identify four key takeaways. First, awareness of internet law is positively correlated with political expression. Second, the more that university students view internet censorship laws as a threat, the less likely they are to engage in political expression. Third, students with a lower awareness of Chinese internet censorship laws psychologically perceive these laws as more threatening. Finally, Lu and Zhao conclude that students’ degree of involvement in political expression positively affects their awareness of internet censorship laws and negatively affects their perceptions of them.

Lu and Zhao’s findings suggest that the Chinese government, as a political actor, has an incentive to create an environment where internet censorship is a perceived threat. By making an example of some citizens who violate Chinese internet censorship law, the Chinese government implants in the back of citizens’ minds the perceived threat of the negative consequences of speaking out. However, this perceived threat is sometimes strong enough to promote self-censorship and disengagement from political protest as evidenced by a negative coefficient between the psychological perception of internet censorship and political protest.

The study further concludes that young adults, who tend to be more technologically proficient, will perceive the censorship policies as less of a threat. Students, who have an increased awareness of censorship laws, will also have the technical knowledge and curiosity to assert their legal rights against censorship law. Just as a U.S. citizen’s knowledge of their Fourth Amendment rights may lead them to refuse a warrantless search of their residence without fear of criminal exposure, a university student in China’s knowledge of the contours of internet regulations may lead them to engage in political expression with less inhibition.

This research comes during intense protests in Hong Kong against government oppression. Despite crackdowns on these protests, Hong Kong citizens elected pro-democracy officials into their city council. Policymakers and grassroots organizers can use this paper’s findings to understand relationships between the internet, political expression, and protest. While ideological beliefs, education, and media consumption play into how individuals engage politically, the awareness and perception that citizens have of how their government regulates content on the internet may affect how willing they are to express their political beliefs or engage in protest.

Article source: Lu, Jiayin, and Yupei Zhao. “Implicit and Explicit Control: Modeling the Effect of Internet Censorship on Political Protest in China.” International Journal of Communication 12 (2018).

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