Can Online Ads Help Prevent Violent Extremism?

Extremist groups have a new recruiting tool: online media. Organizations including hate groups, violent jihadist groups and far-right political groups have increasingly turned to the web—and to social media, in particular—for the purposes of identifying sympathizers, distributing propaganda and recruiting new members. In response, counter-extremist campaigns have fought back using innovative online strategies meant to interfere with recruitment and prevent “radicalization.”

One such interference campaign, labeled the “Redirect Method,” has endeavored to fight extremism using intervention through online advertisements. Originally proposed by Google’s sibling company Jigsaw and implemented in North America by Moonshot CVE, the Redirect Method has targeted ads at users interested in violent extremism and has shown them videos expressing alternative, moderate views. A recent RAND Corporation report reviewed the effectiveness of the Redirect Method, as well as the challenges involved in measuring effects of online counter-extremism efforts.

The Redirect Method strategy was straightforward: In 2015 and 2016, Moonshot CVE bought Google ads that would appear on a results page whenever people searched for violent extremist content. These ads typically consisted of links to video playlists with ambiguous titles such as, “The Truth About Jihad” and “Fight for Your Culture?” These playlists contained “counternarratives” to common extremist arguments, testimony from former extremists who had defected, and videos of religious figures arguing against violence. When users searched for potentially radicalizing material, they would instead find this counter-extremist content. Ultimately, the authors of the RAND study found that users clicked on these ads about as often as most ads were clicked on, but the authors were unable to show whether this engagement changed the behavior or beliefs of potential extremist sympathizers.

RAND measured the Redirect Method campaign’s reach using the same Google AdWord analytics commonly employed by advertisers, and the authors presented their findings using digital marketing metrics. One particularly important metric is the click-through-rate (CTR), which measures the proportion of users exposed to an ad who click on it. An average campaign, according to the analytics firm WordStream (cited in the report), yields a CTR of 3.2 percent. In the case of the Redirect Method, the CTRs for ads countering violent jihadist and far-right content, respectively, were 3.2 and 2.2 percent. After clicking an ad, users watched the playlists for an average of 10 to 59 seconds, depending on the playlist.

The RAND report noted that the real question is whether the videos changed the actions and views of susceptible individuals. These effects are much more difficult to measure, but RAND provided some possible approaches to gathering data and improving similar campaigns.

Further efforts could, for instance, include a “call to action” in the advertisement. By placing a phone number or link to “learn more” alongside the ad or video, counter-extremist organizers could give susceptible individuals a way to signal their interest or contact counselors. This both allows for one-on-one interventions and signals to organizers whether a given video is actually convincing. Learning which videos lead to action could help counter-extremist organizers create more effective advertisements.

RAND’s report suggested that organizers could also measure the effectiveness of counter-extremist content by comparing the online behavior of susceptible individuals before and after clicking on the ad. If susceptible individuals often post extremism-related comments online, changes in the tone or frequency of those comments after viewing an advertisement might reveal the ad’s effect on watchers.

Measurement efforts like these could help policymakers and organizers better understand which counter-extremism efforts substantially change people’s behavior or beliefs. That understanding, the RAND report argued, is critical for mounting an effective and efficient fight against violent extremism. Policymakers and organizations should continue experimenting with innovative tactics, but new innovations should ideally be evaluated in terms of clear, apparent changes in the hearts and minds of potential extremist sympathizers.

Article source: Helmus, Todd C. and Kurt Klein, “Assessing Outcomes of Online Campaigns Countering Violent Extremism: A Case Study of the Redirect Method.” RAND Corporation, (2018).

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