How electrification will replace fossil fuels and change the future

Electrification, defined as replacing carbon-emitting fuels with electricity as a primary energy source to provide a similar service, is often considered a critical tactic in the fight against climate change. The process of electrification may be the globe’s best option in satisfying increasing energy demand while simultaneously decreasing humanity’s carbon footprint.

In a new publication in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Electrification Futures Study series, a ten-member research team examined different demand-side adoption scenarios of electrification in transportation (such as the adoption of electric vehicles), residential and commercial buildings (like the use of heat pumps), and industrial sectors (including curing and drying) from today through 2050, ultimately estimating the corresponding electricity consumption profiles and the potential of electrification to reduce carbon emissions.

The authors explore three scenarios for how energy consumption could change over time, utilizing the EnergyPATHWAYS model to estimate future energy demand. The first, the Reference scenario, is the “business-as-usual” scenario with the least incremental change in technology advancement and adoption. The second, the Medium scenario, considers the “low-hanging fruit” of electrification: opportunities in electric vehicles, heat pumps and select industrial applications. Finally, in the High scenario, the authors assume transformational change in electrification based on a combination of technology advancements, policy support, and consumer enthusiasm.

The main finding of this study, given the varied projection scenarios, is that electrification has the potential to significantly increase overall demand for electricity and decrease demand for fossil fuels in end-use. Due to the trend of electrification in all sectors, a higher proportion of energy end-use will rely on electricity rather than fossil fuel. According to the study, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for electricity demand will break out as follows:

• Reference scenario: 0.65 percent CAGR, 21 percent total electric consumption growth
• Medium scenario 1.2 percent CAGR, 45 percent total electric consumption growth
• High scenario: 1.6 percent CAGR, 67 percent total electric consumption growth

At the same time, fossil fuel demand is expected to decrease significantly. In the High scenario, it is estimated that fossil fuel consumption will be reduced significantly relative to the Reference scenario: 74 percent for gasoline, 35 percent for diesel, and 37 percent for natural gas.

Another important finding is that the authors identify transportation as the sector likely to be the most significant growth area in electrification. The adoption and development of electric vehicles are expected to expand fastest, serving as major contributors to future electricity demand growth. Currently, the transportation sector has a lot of potential in electrification because it accounts for nearly 30 percent of primary energy consumption but less than 1 percent of electricity demand in the U.S. According to the study, the proportion of plug-in electric vehicles in the expected 2050 light-duty fleet ranges from roughly 11 percent in the Reference scenario to nearly 84 percent in the High scenario.

Finally, the authors point out that widespread end-use electric technology adoption in the real estate sector (both commercial and residential) would shift load shapes across seasons, which means that the peak demand across seasons will be different. Because of adoption of electric heat pumps, this study predicts a shift of electricity peak usage from summer to winter. This shift is particularly significant in the midwestern and northeastern states in the Medium and High scenarios because of cold winters in these areas. In addition, the peak national hourly demand for electricity is also expected to increase yearly through 2050.  The authors estimate that in Medium and High scenarios, the peak hourly electricity demand will increase by 19 percent and 33 percent respectively.

To prepare for this large expected growth in electrification, policymakers must begin to integrate this projected change into electricity infrastructure planning and development. Similarly, given the higher dependence on electricity and the increased estimated peak load, it will be necessary to consider security and grid resilience improvement as the world’s energy consumption shifts to a more sustainable option.

Article source: Mai, Trieu, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson. “Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States.” National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2018): NREL/TP-6A20-71500.

Featured photo: cc/(Kurguzova, photo ID: 1062984356, from iStock by Getty Images)