How Hostile Neighbors Advance their Domestic and Foreign Policy Agendas Through Political Interference

Existing policy research cites domestic and systemic factors as primary explanations for political underdevelopment, ignoring the potential impact of international relations and foreign interference. As a result, many foreign policy strategies fail to address threats due to nations sharing borders with countries possessing opposing interests. Is it possible that a nation’s neighbor could pose an even larger threat to achieving growth and development objectives than previously thought?

In her recent study, Melissa Lee of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University examines the extent to which sovereignty may be weakened within countries that share borders with states that have conflicting policy objectives. Lee hypothesizes that where there are policy incompatibilities with a neighbor, hostile states degrade domestic sovereignty in their targets through two strategies: 1) subversion to deepen separatism; and 2) coercion. To test this hypothesis, Lee conducted a cross-national, within-country statistical analysis of 78 countries over the period 1960-2012. She controlled for domestic factors that impact governance, such as distance from a capital city, terrain ruggedness, population density, and religious and ethnic differences.

Lee combines her study with an exploration of several interactions between developing countries and their hostile neighbors and the impact of these interactions on political and economic development. One of the historical examples Lee considers is the interaction between Malaysia and the Philippines in the 1970s. Lee looks at Malaysia’s role in undermining domestic sovereignty through conflict in the Mindanao region of the Philippines, where Malaysia played a critical role in supporting and empowering a Philippine rebel group that ultimately degraded Philippine authority in Mindanao. Existing research on the conflict suggests that economic, cultural and religious differences fueled the weakening of Philippine state authority. However, a deeper understanding of the cross-border relationship between Malaysia and the Philippines reveals the influence of foreign interference in fueling the conflict. The Philippine government lost leverage, resorted to military force, and ultimately never regained complete control over Mindanao. To date, terrorist groups continue to threaten the region, development has been stunted, and thousands of people have fled.

Through statistical analysis coupled with several observed historical examples, Lee concluded that countries with hostile neighbors may face harmful consequences for their exercise of state authority in border territories. In fact, according to Lee, states are less likely to exercise authority in territories next to enemy states than in territories not next to enemy states. Additionally, these enemy nations employ strategies to intentionally keep their neighbors weak in an effort to advance their own agendas. Further, evidence points to the underappreciated role of hostile states that degrade state authority above and beyond the effects of domestic factors alone. The implications of these findings for human well-being are far-reaching. We know that while targeted states respond to foreign interference, these responses are unlikely to recapture lost authority, ultimately leaving those nations weaker.

This study reveals that there is an opportunity to think critically about how foreign meddling can affect a state’s ability to govern its own territory. Lee argues that the failure to account for rival neighbors when formulating foreign and domestic policy agendas can hurt a state that already faces growth and development challenges. Improving human well-being, increasing security, and promoting economic growth are primary policy objectives for leaders across the globe. Lee’s study shows us that intelligence, military, and foreign policy professionals should think beyond just domestic factors in order to accomplish these objectives.

Article source: Lee, Melissa. “The International Politics of Incomplete Sovereignty: How Hostile Neighbors Weaken the State.” International Organization 72, Issue 2 (2018): 283-315.

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