The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games: Spillover Effects on Air Quality and Health

After several days of bad air quality in December 2015, Beijing issued its first “red alert” warning people of the increased level of pollution. That day, air quality levels surpassed the World Health Organization’s recommended level by 10 times. The red alert involved drastic measures such as school and construction site closures and significant traffic restrictions. These limitations also recalled the controls Beijing enacted during the 2008 Olympic Games to protect athletes and visitors. A recent paper took advantage of the exceptional restrictions during the Games to understand how the high levels of pollution in Beijing contribute to thousands of premature deaths among Chinese citizens each year.

These regulations were put in place in November 2007 and ended in September 2008 (the Olympics and Paralympics lasted from July to September 2008). Before the Games began, all coal plants were required to install devices to decrease emissions. High-emitting vehicles were replaced by increased public transportation options, some chemical plants in Beijing were shut down, and the government increased the price of gasoline to discourage the use of cars. During the Games, additional restrictions were put in place. Vehicles with odd numbered plates could only circulate on odd days, while even numbered plates were only allowed to circulate on even days. All cement, concrete, and lime plants were closed, and power and chemical plants were required to decrease emissions by 30 percent.

These measures caused a sudden and sharp decrease in air pollution levels in Beijing and nearby cities. For instance, the particulate matter in the air (PM₁₀) in Beijing decreased by an average of 18 percent during 2008 and 30 percent during the Games. After the Games, the air quality worsened again, suggesting that the measures were successful while enforced.

Did the improved air quality conditions improve the health of Beijing’s residents? To evaluate the impact of lower levels of air pollution on mortality rates, the authors classified deaths by those related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, which can be connected to or worsened by air pollution, and others that are typically unrelated to pollution, such as old age or sudden injuries. The authors then matched the air quality and death rates for a group of 34 cities between 2006 and 2010, approximately two years before and two years after the Games’ restrictions.

The authors compared mortality rates among cities that had experienced a large decrease in pollution with those that had experienced little or no reduction, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics of the population, weather conditions, and regional incidents such as epidemics or economic shocks. The results show a significant decrease in the number of cardiovascular and respiratory deaths during the months the measures were enacted. Within this four-year window when the restrictions were in place, the probability of dying from a pollution-related cardiovascular or respiratory disease decreased.

As expected, no effects on other kinds of deaths that are less related to air quality were observed, suggesting that there is a causal link between air quality and cardiovascular and respiratory risks. In this particular case, a decrease of 10 percent in PM₁₀ was associated with a seven percent decrease in deaths per 100,000 people. According to the authors, this figure is equivalent to preventing 196,000 premature deaths. Prevention of these deaths results in economic benefits that the researchers estimate are between $58 billion and $1 trillion per year, based on a statistical valuation of life, calculated to be between .24 and 3.84 million yuan in China.

The authors explicitly state that these results cannot be generalized because of the particularities of the study and the strikingly high levels of pollution in Beijing. However, some cities in India, Mongolia, Pakistan, and other developing countries have even worse air quality than China’s capital city. These findings should alert governments and policymakers to the potentially significant health and economic costs of air pollution, as well as to the benefits that can be gained by instituting effective and long lasting air pollution restrictions.

Article Source: He, Guojun, Maoyong Fan, and Maigeng Zhou. “The Effect of Air Pollution on Mortality in China: Evidence from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,” HKUST IEMS Working Paper, 2015-03 (2016): 1-62.

Featured Photo: cc/(fotokon, photo ID: 34659768, from iStock by Getty Images)