NATO Needs to Rethink Its Enlargement Strategy

With the deterioration of the Ukraine crisis in February 2014, the question of NATO’s enlargement, and its ramifications, were placed under international scrutiny. In an article entitled “The Future of NATO Enlargement after the Ukraine Crisis,” Andrew T. Wolff interprets the events in Ukraine as a synthesis of two opposing world views: a liberal-minded West and a geopolitically-minded Russia. Wolff argues that NATO leaders must acknowledge that they have failed to integrate Russia into Western political and security structures, realize that their global enlargement policy has created tensions in Europe, and subsequently modify their policies through the adoption of mindful geopolitical strategy.

Wolff argues that Russian foreign policy has historically adopted a neo-imperialist approach that seeks to dominate the foreign and economic relations of its closest neighbors. Under the paradigmatic lens of Russia’s geopolitics, NATO expansion is acceptable only so long as NATO becomes primarily a political forum and less militarily oriented. Thus, Russia’s interpretation of the Ukraine crisis is closely tied to its perception of NATO as an outdated military bloc whose expansion is considered to be encroaching on Russia and posing a threat to Russian domestic security.

Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, NATO responded by offering Russia a partnership that reframed enlargement in terms of an anti-terrorism cooperation—a move that rendered enlargement more palatable to Russia. However, this did not last long: In 2006, Russian hostility towards enlargement resurged as a result of NATO’s increased outreach to Georgia and Ukraine. Wolff remarks that NATO should consider altering its liberal policies in a way that better copes with Russia’s intransigence in the face of those objectives.

Wolff contends that Western leaders should focus expansion on countries that tangibly improve the security of NATO. In this revised approach, a country’s adherence to democratic governance would become secondary to common security. NATO could identify candidate countries that should be excluded from or courted into NATO based on an assessment of their military, economic, and political contributions, and pool its resources in areas of critical strategic importance in Europe.

A geopolitically focused strategy would recognize that Russia should assume more political leadership in the Caucasus region on the grounds of proximity, economic interests, historical ties, and security concerns. NATO should support Ukraine’s status as a neutral buffer state and exclude Georgia and Ukraine from membership. NATO could instead pursue enlargement in the Balkans and Scandinavia, which would strengthen the alliance by bolstering strategic weaknesses in the former region and incorporating the capabilities of the latter. Enlargement in the Balkans is a more realistic strategy than spreading NATO to the Caucasus, as the region is contiguous with the EU and NATO and outside of Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden are already moving closer to NATO due to shifts in their security environment and domestic politics. Both countries feel more threatened by Russia and are increasingly debating extant doctrines of neutrality.

Undeniably, the adoption of a geopolitical enlargement policy is not without its challenges, as the West would be forced to abandon its “right to choose” rhetoric as a counter argument to Russian protests against expansion. However, Wolff argues such a policy would, in fact, strengthen the NATO alliance and give it more flexibility in dealing with Russia. Just as Samuel Huntington indicates in The Clash of Civilizations and Joseph Nye argues in Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, delineations in the post-Cold War international order lean more on cultures, political values, and foreign policies. NATO, as a regional military organization, could function better by slightly modifying its vision and reaching a limited consensus with Russia.

Article Source: Wolff, Andrew T. “The Future of NATO Enlargement after the Ukraine Crisis,” International Affairs, September 2015, Volume 91, Number 5.

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