Countdown to Election: Quinn v Rauner, who’s telling the truth about Illinois’ economy?

“Illinois has added 257,000 private sector jobs.” This is what voters see when they look at Governor Quinn’s evaluation of job growth under his administration, but if they scroll over to Bruce Rauner’s Bring Back Blueprint, they will see “Illinois lost 26,000 private sector jobs.” In politics it is generally understood that candidates have to find ways to reinterpret the facts to serve themselves. But this can be frustrating when the facts presented directly contradict each other. In order to choose the candidate that will best serve them, voters need to be studious referees to accurately judge the facts at hand.

As voters go to the polls in Illinois from now until November 4th, the economy will be on their minds. Since both candidates selectively choose self-serving data, voters are going to have a difficult time deciphering what is the truth and what is hyperbole. In this article we delve into three economic issues hotly debated in the Quinn vs. Rauner campaigns.

1. Is Illinois experiencing private sector job growth or loss?

When it comes to private sector job growth, it appears that neither candidate is telling falsehoods, but each is emphasizing the facts he want voters to hear. On Governor Quinn’s campaign website, data on private sector job growth came from January 2010 to early 2014. He leaves out the first year of his administration, 2009, when Illinois, like most states, lost jobs due to the Great Recession.

Bruce Rauner’s depiction of private sector job growth only uses data from December 2013 to May 2014 to arrive at the conclusion that Illinois lost 26,000 private sector jobs. That data is largely misleading, because under Governor Quinn’s administration, private sector job growth has shown a net increase; the unemployment rate for the same period, including government jobs, decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.5 percent.

2. Did taxes go up or did they go through the roof?

Another point of contention between the two candidates is Governor Quinn’s record on taxes. In 2011, Illinois passed legislation that raised individual income tax rates from 3 percent to 5 percent. Governor Quinn prefers to call this tax a necessary increase in revenue to prevent budget cuts and often highlights a raise in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) that will shield lower and working class families from some of the increase.

Bruce Rauner calls this tax a 67 percent increase by calculating the percent change instead of the difference. He also makes no mention of the EITC. This is the same data, but the public receives the message differently depending on their information source. To many, it is difficult to see past the rhetoric of large numbers or different language, to the actual impact of the taxes.

3. Has the manufacturing sector flourished or been stifled in recent years?

Voters who are tuned into the downstate debate may be confused by the contradictory Quinn and Rauner debate on manufacturing growth. While Governor Quinn boasts about manufacturing growth, Bruce Rauner claims Quinn’s policies led to massive manufacturing job loss. A recent report by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics noted that while the unemployment rate in Illinois has been dropping, Illinois has lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs since Governor Quinn took office during the recession. However, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, manufacturing output from 2009 to 2013 rose by 59.4 percent, meaning that while Illinois manufacturing is bringing in more monetary capital, it is not hiring at the same rate as before the recession.

Should voters carry the burden of constant fact checking, or do candidates have a responsibility to give audiences a comprehensive understanding of the issues? There are no regulations against emphasizing only flattering aspects of candidates. Therefore, the public will be required to continue digging beneath the surface to find the candidate who will be best for them.

Feature Photo: cc/(Chicago Tribune)