Rising Costs, Expanding Waistlines

The United States is fat, and it comes at huge economic cost. Thirty-five percent of American adults are obese, with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more. According to the CDC, a normal body mass index for adults is between 18.5 and 24.9. If current trends continue, by 2030, more than 44 percent of adults could be obese in our nation. That’s almost half of the United States.

In their annual report “F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future,” the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation examines how obesity could impact the future health and wealth of our country. The report uses data from the CDC’s publicly available Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRRFS), described by the CDC as the “world’s largest, on-going telephone health survey system, tracking health conditions and risk behaviors in the United States yearly since 1984.” The report also draws heavily upon forecasting models used in a peer-reviewed article, “Health and Economic Burden of the Projected Obesity Trends in the USA and the UK,” in order to analyze and predict future obesity trends by state.

The report projects that obesity could contribute to more than 6 million cases of type 2 diabetes, 5 million cases of heart disease and stroke, and more than 400,000 cases of cancer in the next two decades nationwide. If current trends continue, by 2030, there will be, on average, approximately 12,000 new cases of Type II diabetes, 25,000 new cases of coronary heart disease, 25,000 new cases of hypertension, 16,000 new cases of arthritis, and 4,000 new cases of obesity-related cancer in every state. Not surprisingly, these trends vary by state. For example, by 2030, forecasts for the number of new cases of Type II diabetes range from 8,658 in Utah to 15,208 in West Virginia. Find the obesity rates in your state by clicking here.

If that is not alarming enough, these diseases come at an enormous economic cost. By 2030, in conjunction with the increase in obesity-related illnesses, medical costs could rise to between $48 and $66 billion per year. Economic productivity would also be affected and between $390 and $580 million could be lost by 2030. In their state-by-state analysis, the report predicts that 40 states will have increases in health care costs higher than 10%. Illinois, for example, is expected to see obesity-related health care costs rise by 16% by 2030 and would rank 21^st in health care costs out of all 50 states.

But it’s not all bad news. The report estimates that if states could reduce the average adult BMI by 5% (or about 10 pounds), they could save billions of dollars. Nearly every state would save between 6.5 and 7.8 percent in obesity-related health costs. Cash-strapped Illinois, for example, could save nearly $10 billion in health care costs by 2020 and $30 billion by 2030, potential health care savings of 7.5 percent, if the average adult BMI were reduced by 5 percent.

The Foundation advocates several policy responses to this pressing public health issue, targeting children, adults, and communities. Some of the many policy responses listed include full implementation of the USDA’s school meal nutrition standards, protection of the “Prevention and Public Health Fund” (the nation’s largest single investment in preventative medicine), increased investments in effective evidence-based obesity-prevention programs, and expanding opportunities to promote physical education and activity in schools.

Notably, many of these interventions are preventative in nature. For example, amongst several other obesity-related issues that might be supported by policy, the authors highlight the Surgeon General’s call for more breastfeeding as an important preventative intervention. In addition to a range of other health benefits, children who are breastfed have lower rates of obesity later in life. Mothers lose pregnancy weight more quickly and are at a reduced risk of breast cancer and postpartum depression.

As our country continues to grow heavier and heavier, the F as in Fat report is a reminder of what is at stake. The severity of the obesity crisis calls for policy makers and families alike to rise to the challenge and to become a healthier, happier, more productive nation.

Feature photo: cc/Pink Sherbet Photography