Muhammet Bas

Nuclear Dynamics and Conflicting Effects of Foreign Policy Initiatives

The nuclear threat to the United States from Iraq, North Korea, and Syria is of recent vintage. During the last...

When Does War Transpire? Unlikely War Onset Under Uncertainty

Scholars have attempted to clarify whether uncertainty about the outcome of a potential war—victory or defeat—influences state behavior in international...

Causes of War: When the Unknown Creates False Optimism

Differing estimates and perceptions of opponents’ power may increase the likelihood of war. Countries are generally incentivized to misrepresent their...